The gang recaps all the H20 at the WGC at Doral, revels in a big check for Tiger, and gives you a few reasons to watch the international-heavy field at the Shell Houston Open.
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Ain’t it great to be long and straight?
Top odds are 15:1 - Adam Scott, Padraig Harrington, and David Toms.
Great players all, but no Tiger, Phil, Vijay, Ernie not Retief doesn’t make the Shell Houston Open at the top of the weekend must watch list. But for the sports investors among us, there may be a couple strong longshots to play and also one matchup to watch.
KC and I both agree that defending champ Stuart Appleby is a great shot at 20:1 - no need to put a full weekend bankroll at risk this weekend, but put a unit or two here tops.
Longshots? Bomber Lucas Glover at 25:1 could be a fun spot, but I really like the Glove +110 over KJ Choi more. As we say in the podcast, KJ is just not a good fit for the Redstone.
Another matchup of interest is David Toms EVEN over Adam Scott (-120)…both are favorites, but interestingly Scott hasn’t played four consistent rounds in a row since the Mercedes Cup in Hawaii in January, and is 125th in putting and 163rd in scoring average. This deserves your attention as well. See this link on PGATour.com to compare your matchups.
UPDATE: Late WD - Pat Perez and Tom Pernice, Jr. Two guys that would have been nice longshots. Also Ben Crane.
Sergio expectorating at the WGC at Doral…
Bill O’Reilly would throw a flag for the Spin on Sergio’s explanation…as you might imagine the YouTube commentary is fierce and prejudicial…
KC and Vince begin their podcast odyssey, starting with introductions and breaking down their Bay Hill, er, Arnold Palmer Invitational weekend. Also a quick look ahead at Doral.
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First off, I want to give you my betting plan and a quick glossary of betting phrases I use so you can understand the knowledge I bring to the table.
Bettors and investors alike tend to pick more winners than losers unless they have absolutely no idea what they are doing - what gets smart people in trouble is often overconfidence. By using principles of money management you can keep your bankroll alive and available to play throughout the whole season.
Rule #1 - Define your capital
Whether $100 or $1000 or $10,000, commit yourself to an amount you will risk for any given season and NEVER ADD TO IT. If you have lost all your bankroll based on your system, your system is flawed - adding more money to a failed system is throwing good money away. Try fantasy betting at www.nbx.com to find your rhythm.
Rule #2 - Never invest more than 25% of your capital in one bet.
So assuming $1000 of capital, you should never put more than $250 on one bet (no matter how much you believe in Chad Campbell or Tiger Woods). This way you suffer fewer no debilitating losses. You may prefer 10% or 20% - just define it below 30% and you should be fine. A corollary of this is to never have more than 80% at risk at one time - you would hate to wake up tomorrow and be out of cash.
Rule #3 - Define a confidence system
Many bettors like to bet the same amount on each opportunity, some want to put more money down on their best ideas. I will make reference to “units” throughout the season, and I define the unit as 5% of capital. If I want to dabble on a long-shot or just want to be in action, I put down 1 unit (e.g., I have one unit on Chad at 125-to-1 to win the WGC Match Play). But when it is time to get serious, I can go up to five units. I have no quantitative means to arrive at this - I am pretty quantitative in screening for opportunities, but I admit the confidence system is more intuitive.
Rule #4 - Stay disciplined
All the rules in the world are crap if you break them. The “Just this one time” crap may work on your significant other but you are only letting yourself down by coloring outside the lines. Another corollary - stay quiet. Few people are truly interested in your braggadocio especially if you do not share your “big beats”. Mostly keep your sports investing to yourself.
Rule #5 - Keep a journal
You may see patterns of failure or success that you wouldn’t have noticed otherwise. For instance I really believe Adam Scott is destined for greatness, but I lose betting with him more than anyone else. Knowing this I have adjusted my confidence units down on each bet now. Like those who were shorting Amazon stock in 1999 - they were right, it was only worth about 10% of the current value, but they were early. Unless they managed those losses they lost a lot of capital. I plan on posting the KC On Golf journal so you can see just how good or bad I am.
SO given all that, Saturday we like Nick O’Hern at +120 over Henrik Stenson (1 unit since he has advanced to the semis) and Geoff Ogilvy -125 over Paul Casey (Ogilvy may be overvalued as a 5:4 fave but a win is a win).
See our friends at Sportsbook.com to try out your ideas.
Tucson, AZ - It took twenty holes to knock off Tiger Woods today - something of which Nick O’Hern is intimately familiar at the Accenture WGC Match Play Championships.
Woods erased a 3-down lead but the crafty Aussie PGA Champ sunk a 15-foot putt for par to send Tiger back to his den. That den certainly is appointed luxuriously as Tiger had won seven straight PGA events, but O’Hern recreated his 2005 second-round upset on Friday to stop that streak.
O’Hern gets the other Tiger-stopper Henrik Stenson (Dubai) tomorrow.
On the gaming side, Chad Campbell (I admit to having a golf-man-crush on him) was a delicious 25-1 this AM on Sportsbook.com, and was also a +160 underdog to David Toms. Yummy. Toms has some big wins in his career but is rarely at the top of the All-Around stat ranking - to me a sign that he can always have a bad day. Hence, I am notorious for betting against him in matchups.
Stephen Ames knows the feeling from last year. He mouthed off a bit about his chances given Tiger Woods winning some tourneys despite not playing his best. They were matched up in the first round of the 2006 WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship.
The result? Seven birdies from Eldrick, a 29 on the front nine, an early lunch seating…and of course,
The 2007 WGC has some amazing first-round matchups:
We will break these down, as well as our weekend predictions, in our podcast for Thursday!
Realtime Bracket from PGATour.com
Weekly Odds from GolfOdds.com
Nothing like a sudden death triple OT early in the season!
Phil Mickelson’s trusty chipper failed him many times on his way to defeat at the hands of rock-steady Charles Howell III (above, aka “CH3″ ’round these parts).
“It’s been a long time,” Howell said. “I’m speechless.”
Yeah, the verbosity must pick up if America is to embrace “3″ as an up and coming golf star.
My recollection of the final hour was how quickly Lefty worked and how poorly both players executed under pressure. And of course Lefty is carrying about 25 pounds less around his center of gravity this season, which I believe will only help him in his pursuit of more majors.
More for KC and I on the podcast shortly.
